Aussie Implied Rates Surge on Employment Data

There seemed to be good news all round on Thursday with risk appetite slowly gathering a head of steam. The better risk environment remains tempered by the clouds gathering over peripheral Europe as dealers remain skeptical over holding paper issued by governments thought most likely to default. But the emergence of further threats to stability was tod ...

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Afternoon Forex Overview

The euro gained modestly on the dollar Thursday after better-than-expected U.S. data allayed some worry over the pace of the economic recovery, leading investors into higher-yielding currencies. The common currency also benefited from a successful auction of Irish government debt, further soothing investor nerves that had been on alert after recent con ...

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July Trade Deficit Narrows Substantially After June Jump

The trade deficit narrowed to $42.8 billion in July from $49.8 billion in June as exports rose and imports declined. The decline in imports was concentrated in non-petroleum goods and services as petroleum imports held steady around the lows of the year. Looking at the details shows that the number of barrels of crude imported held near the highs of th ...

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Commodity Currencies Go Ballistic on Risk Rally

The don't worry, buy Aussie theme we discussed yesterday remains in high gear with an almost absurdly strong employment report from down under overnight. More than 50k full time jobs were added to the economy, according the report, which would be like 500k or more on a per capita basis for the US. Part time jobs were a -22k draw on the overall +31k rea ...

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U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed Sharply in July

The U.S. trade deficit narrowed sharply to -$42.8 billion in July, well above market expectations for a -$47.0 billion shortfall going into the report. June's deficit was revised only modestly to -$49.8 billion from the initially reported -$49.9 billion. The improvement in the trade balance in the month reflected a sharp $4.2 billion (-2.1%) drop in im ...

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Canada's July Merchandise Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Jumps ...

Canada's July merchandise trade balance came in much worse than expected with the deficit unexpectedly jumping to $2.7 billion relative to a June deficit of $1.8 billion (revised higher from an initially estimated $1.1 billion). Expectations were for a modest improvement in July to a deficit of $0.8 billion. The deterioration occurred from both imports ...

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Canadian Housing Starts Eased Further in August

Canadian housing starts fell 3.0% to an annualized pace of 183,300 units in August, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline following July's revised 1.5% decline to 188,900 (previously reported as 189,200) and declines of 2.8% and 3.8% in June and May, respectively. Market expectations were for a slightly smaller decrease in the level of starts ...

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Mixed Bag for Forex Traders

Following last week's show of health in the shape of reasonable U.S. job creation, investors find themselves at the start of the same cycle witnessed back in the second quarter. Growth around the world appeared to be picking up at the time, while the punishment ailing the euro began to run out of steam. The risk-on rally reflected the disappearance of ...

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A Mixed Bag of Volatility

A bit of a mixed bag this afternoon in terms of volatility. My feelings proved me right yesterday as the stock market was the leader into a more friendly risk environment and as a consequence volatility is a touch lower today. The commodity crosses are under pressure now for 2-3 days because of a stronger AUD, NZD and CAD. ...

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London Session Recap

The market has continued its move into risky assets. Stocks in Europe and the US started the day on a good note and gold edged lower to the $1,254.60 region. However, currency markets were less bullish. The euro dipped below $1.27 before clawing its way back to $1.2720 and dollar-yen could only climb back to 83.70 after experiencing a bout of weakness ...

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No Change On BoE's Monetary Policy, Rate Unchanged At 0.50 Pe ...

BoE policy makers opted to leave both interest rate and the Asset Purchase Facility unchanged at 0.50% and 200 billion pounds respectively, in line with forecasts. They completed a year-and-half of record low rates since March 2009 in order to boost the recovery that started to gain momentum amid the austerity measures adopted by the government to tame ...

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European Market Update

A wider UK trade deficit propelled the pound sterling to test below 1.54 against the USD and approach 0.8270 against the Euro. The data suggested that the UK continued to struggle to regain competitiveness on the international markets. ...

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The BoE Unlikely To Surprise At Today's Meeting

USD continued to hold on to its recent gains against most currencies although losing some ground against fellow safe haven trades. Strong Australian employment data failed to provide a significant boost to currencies outside the AUD, while regional equity markets traded tepidly on the positive side. Yesterdays US beige book report was basically what th ...

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Ireland And Greece Return To Concern

Risk sentiment continues to be the core driver of forex pricing and right now it is squarely negative. The market is once again squarely focused on events in Ireland and Greece. The decisions to split Anglo-Irish, while prudent, highlights the enormity of the potential banking problem. It has taken roughly 20% of Ireland’s GDP to bailout domestic ...

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Near-Term Sterling Buy Opportunity

Sterling will be sold heavily if there is an easing of policy by the Bank of England at Thursday's MPC meeting. An unchanged policy is much more likely and this should trigger a limited and temporary Sterling relief rally. Overall confidence in the UK economy is still liable to weaken which will cap any Sterling advance. Given the domestic and internat ...

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Stress And Nerves Keeps Bulls And Bears Away

Interesting developments overnight in general, not so much on particular crosses or markets but more so in the thoughts and conclusions I arrived at while sipping a lovely glass of Italian red… What perhaps strikes me as the most fascinating aspect of the market at the moment is the fact that yes, people are indeed coming back from long Summer hol ...

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UK Trade Deficit Widens To A Record In July

The British economy is seemingly still affected by the worst financial crisis in decades along with easing economic conditions on a global scale, leading to a record deficit during the month of July driven by higher imports due to the increase in oil and chemical purchases. ...

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Is A Portuguese Bond Auction All It Takes?

We expect European markets to around flat to slightly lower this morning as the concern of the European sovereign debt is wearing off. As we said yesterday this theme in markets will quickly run out of steam if no news on this would enter into the market. But later in this year when we start to get worse numbers out from the Eurozone economies this the ...

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Sunrise Market Commentary

The 'risk on - risk off' -trade continues to dominate all financial markets. After the risk aversion of Tuesday, it was the return of risk appetite that was the theme on Wednesday. Just like the underlying news behind the risk aversion trade was very light on Tuesday, so was the news behind the risk appetite sentiment yesterday. Concerns eased about th ...

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Morning Forex Overview

Renewed threats by Japan's Minister of Finance Yoshihiko Noda to take "decisive steps" to stop the rise in the yen failed to deter the market Thursday, but they at least stopped traders from pushing the currency to yet another 15-year high against the dollar. ...

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